Strategies for MMA/UFC Betting
As in all forms of sports betting, wagering successfully on Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) bouts requires an understanding of statistics and past results. Each fighter has a style of his own, along with certain weaknesses and strengths. His history will be the best indicator of his future performance, so it is essential to become as familiar as possible with all aspects of top competitors and their opponents before betting.
A good starting point is to choose a weight class and get to know every ranked fighter and contender. The Unified Rules of MMA allow for nine classes, although Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) bouts fall into just seven (marked with an asterisk), as follows:
Flyweight 125 pounds and under
Bantamweight* 126 to 135 pounds
Featherweight* 136 to 145 pounds
Lightweight* 146 to 155 pounds
Welterweight* 156 to 170 pounds
Middleweight* 171 to 185 pounds
Light Heavyweight* 186 to 205 pounds
Heavyweight* 206 to 265 pounds
Super Heavyweight 266 pounds and up
Another approach to betting on MMA is to be selective. Don’t be tempted to bet on every single fight. Concentrate on the main events to start, and gradually work down the undercard, making picks only on those contests that inspire a confident selection. In many bouts, neither fighter has an edge, turning any wager into a coin flip.
Regarding heavy favorites, most handicappers recommend staying away from them. Any fighter favored at -400 or higher on the moneyline simply is not worth the risk; the potential profit is too small. Stick to those favored at -300 or under when going with the popular choice.
By contrast, underdogs can offer excellent value. In fact, to profit in the long run, it is necessary to pick more successful underdogs than favorites, if only because the odds reward the risk. Many handicappers advise making the search for promising newcomers and underrated veterans the main business of betting.
Depending on how much action a bout receives, odds can shift greatly from the moment the line opens right up until the night of the fight. When wagering on underdogs, it often pays to wait as long as possible to make the wager, keeping an eye out for improvements in the odds. On the other hand, when backing favorites, it is best to put the bet in as soon as possible.
One good strategy for wagering on favorites is to make parlay bets on three or more picks on a single ticket. In the UFC in particular, there are several fighters who dominate their weight classes. Betting on them together often results in a very high percentage of parlay payouts. Not nearly as many underdogs win in the UFC.
Although casual bettors tend to stick to moneyline bets because they are straightforward, a lot of cash can be earned by betting on propositions, too. Wagers on how a fight will finish (Knockout, Submission or Decision) pay well, as do those on the specific round in which the fight will end. Again, this comes back to studying past results and knowing which fighters are likely to go the distance and which ones tend to finish quickly.
Lastly, knowing where to bet can often be the key to successful wagering. The most reputable sportbooks are also the safest. Stick to the “big names” online and avoid the untested, unproven start-ups. Look also for special promotions and bonus offers that enhance payouts or provide rebates for losing wagers. Shopping around for the best odds is also a sure way to improve the chances of success in MMA/UFC betting.
